Natural Gas Price Forecast – Prices Rise Despite Rising Production


Natural gas prices rebounded for a second straight session after falling into the red early, ahead of the EIA’s inventory report. Expectations are for a stock build-up of 109 billion cubic feet according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal in most of the United States over the next 8 to 14 days. There is currently a storm in the Atlantic near the Caribbean that has a small chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Production increased in the third quarter.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices rose, bouncing off an uptrend line near 5.29. Resistance is seen near the 10 day moving average at 5.68. The momentum turned negative as the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) index generated a cross sell signal. This happens when the MACD line (the 12 day moving average minus the 26 day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram prints in negative territory with a downward trajectory that indicates falling prices. Short-term momentum is also negative as the Fast Stochastic has generated a sell signal.

The EIA estimates that dry natural gas production averaged 93.3 Bcf per day in the United States during the third quarter of 2021, compared to 91.6 Bcf per day in the first half of 2021. Expected production s ‘grows at an average of 94.0 Bcf per day. during the winter.

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