Mortgage and refinance rates today, March 12

Today’s Mortgage and Refinancing Rates

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. Such falls are always welcome. But recently they have been overtaken by mostly small increases. Still, these rates are a bit lower than at the beginning of the week.

Unfortunately, that happy situation may not last the day. Cause it seems like mortgage rates could go up today, perhaps appreciably.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (June 2, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage interest rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 years fixed 2,983% 2,983% + 0.04%
Conventional 15 years fixed 2,257% 2,258% + 0.02%
Conventional 20 years fixed 2.85% 2.85% + 0.08%
10-year fixed conventional 2,076% 2,114% + 0.11%
30 year fixed FHA 2,813% 3.47% + 0.03%
15 year fixed FHA 2,492% 3,093% + 0.01%
5-year ARM FHA 2.5% 3,194% Unchanged
30-year fixed VA 2,375% 2,547% Unchanged
15-year fixed VA 2.25% 2,571% Unchanged
5 years ARM VA 2.5% 2,372% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (June 2, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest on how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, Click here.

Should You Lock Down a Mortgage Rate Today?

The very things that I hope make you optimistic about your personal financial future are putting upward pressure on mortgage rates. Until they disappear, I hope those rates will continue to rise.

Right now, there are few signs that those reasons for hope will suddenly disappear. Of course, if they do, mortgage rates could fall again. But how likely is that?

So my personal rate-blocking recommendations remain:

  • CLOSE WITH KEY if it gets closer 7 days
  • CLOSE WITH KEY if it gets closer fifteen days
  • CLOSE WITH KEY if it gets closer 30 days
  • CLOSE WITH KEY if it gets closer Four. Five days
  • CLOSE WITH KEY if it gets closer 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily become as good as mine, or better. So be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market Data Affecting Current Mortgage Rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning around 9:50 am (ET). The data, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

  • The 10-year Treasury yield it shot up to 1.62% from 1.53%. (Very bad for mortgage rates.) More than in any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to track these particular Treasury yields, although less recently.
  • Main stock indices were mostly lower when opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which drives prices down and increases mortgage rates and yields. The opposite happens when the indices are lower
  • Oil prices they were higher at $ 65.73, compared to $ 65.00 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play an important role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity).
  • Gold prices fell to $ 1,700 from $ 1,721 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to lower rates
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Jumped to 61 from 54 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors they push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, we only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Market and rate warnings

Before the pandemic and Federal Reserve interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the previous figures and guess what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still make calls. And they are usually right. But our precision record won’t reach its previous highs until things calm down.

Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be trusted. But, with that caveat, so far Today’s mortgage rates are likely to rise, perhaps appreciably. Just keep in mind that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (June 2, 2021)

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Mortgage rates generally go up when the economy is good and fall when there are problems. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care
  2. Only “top tier” borrowers – with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances – get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in advertising.
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements, although they all tend to follow the broader trend over time.
  4. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate sheets the same.
  5. Refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change

So a lot is happening here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the next few hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates going up or down?

Today and so

Regular readers won’t be surprised that mortgage rates could go up today. The White House yesterday gave a double blow to those who want them lower.

First, President Joe Biden signed into law the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, his $ 1.9 trillion pandemic relief package. And secondly, in a subsequent television address, he updated the nation on his vaccination plan.

That meant that all American adults had access to a vaccine from May 1. And the hope of returning to some normal way of life by Independence Day.

Both are catnip for investors. And mortgage rates are likely to go up today, and they’ll probably stay that way for a while.

This morning’s producer price index for final demand will not have helped keep mortgage rates low. That is an indicator of future inflation. And today it came hotter than most analysts expected. Unfortunately, future inflation is another force driving these rates.

So it may be time to acknowledge that the chances of us seeing another record low set for mortgage rates are rapidly diminishing. In the absence of some huge and unexpected blow to the economy, I suspect they may already be history.

For more background on my broader thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is posted every Saturday shortly after 10 am (ET).


For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new weekly all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But the rates later increased. And Freddie’s March 11 report places that weekly average at 3.05% (with 0.6 rates and points), up from 3.02% the week before.

Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.

And here are your current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s and MBA’s were updated on February 18 and 19, respectively. But Freddie now publishes quarterly forecasts and his figures are for mid-January:

Forecaster T1 / 21 T2 / 21 T3 / 21 4T / 21
Fannie mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Freddie mac 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
MBA 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4%

However, given so many unknowns, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly increasing expansion as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to more vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others are still brave. And you can probably still find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or giant loan that you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But of course, you should make extensive comparisons, regardless of the type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Office He says:

Comparing prices on your mortgage has the potential to generate real savings. It may not seem like much, but Saving even a quarter point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars for the life of your loan.

Check your new rate (June 2, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We came up with an average rate and APR for each type of loan to show on our chart. Because we average a variety of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what to find on the market. Also, we average rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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