Brent oil prices to fall through 2022 as global production rises, EIA says

Brent prices are expected to average $ 68 / bbl in 3Q2021 before global production begins to rise, pushing the average price down to around $ 60 / bbl in 2022, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.

In the Short-Term Energy Outlook, the researchers noted that Brent averaged $ 68 / bbl in May, a 25% increase from January.

“Over the next few months, we expect global oil production to catch up with the increases in demand that we have seen in 2021,” said Acting EIA Administrator Stephen Nalley. “US and global oil producers are increasing production, which should help moderate oil prices which have risen significantly as global economic concerns over the Covid-19 pandemic have started to ease.”

Global consumption of oil and liquid fuels is expected to increase by 6% in 2021. Production is expected to average 97.7 million b / d this year and a further 4% in 2022 to reach an average of 101.3 million b / d. j.

[NGI’s natural gas price indexes have included trade data from both price reporters and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) since 2008. Find out more about our price index data here.]

“In response to this increase in global demand, we expect US crude oil production to average 11.8 million barrels per day in 2022, up 4% from 2020.”

Researchers expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production to reach 28.7 million barrels per day in 2022, a 12% increase from 2020. Last month OPEC projected oil demand would increase by nearly 6.0 million barrels per day from last year, or 7%, to an average of 96.5 million barrels per day in 2021. Last month, the International energy also estimated demand would increase of 5.4 million bpd this year.

The EIA also predicts that US retail gasoline prices will average $ 2.92 / gallon for the summer driving season, which runs from April through September. Average monthly gasoline prices this summer are expected to peak at $ 3.03 this month.

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