Poland’s industrial production growth soared 44.5% year-on-year at constant prices in April, after jumping 18.9% year-on-year the previous month, according to unadjusted data from the Bureau of GUS statistic on May 24.
The expansion was in line with consensus that assumes the peak in output growth would occur from the very low base in April 2020 caused by the pandemic lockdown.
“The production of durable consumer goods continues to grow the fastest, supported by the recovery in consumer demand. Production of capital goods is also gradually picking up. Exports remain an important driver of the industrial sector, as production in export-oriented segments has increased the most, ”Bank Millennium wrote in a commentary on GUS figures.
Seasonally adjusted, industrial production soared 44.7% y / y in the fourth month after expanding 15.7% y / y in March.
The monthly reading showed an unadjusted recovery of 9.2% (+ 18.6% month-over-month in March) and a decline of 0.4% after adjustment (March + 2.3% m / m).
Broken down by main segments, production grew by 50.6% y / y unadjusted (+ 20.9% y / y in March) in the manufacturing sector. Production also increased 20.1% y / y (March + 12.2% y / y) in water supply and waste management.
There was also a gain of 11.5% y / y (+ 5.3% y / y in March) in the utilities sector. Production increased 2.3% y / y (March -0.6% y / y) in mining and quarrying.
Overall, production increased in 32 of 34 industry segments in April on a year-over-year basis. March saw a year-over-year expansion in 27 segments.
Data for April shows “a soft start to the second quarter, but that shouldn’t have been a major surprise given the tightening of containment measures,” Capital Economics noted.
“New cases of the virus have dropped, vaccine deployment has accelerated, and the government has reopened parts of the hospitality and entertainment sector, including outdoor dining rooms and movie theaters. We expect a sustained recovery in activity from May, with GDP growth of 4.3% for the whole of 2021, ”added the London-based analysis firm.
Analysts at Polish state-owned bank PKO BP are much more optimistic.
“The uptrend in the industry may be higher than we previously expected, at 5% -6% y / y. If this is confirmed in the May data, released in June, it would mean that GDP growth in 2021 could be higher than what we currently estimate, at almost 6% instead of the 5.1% currently forecast, ”he said. declared PKO BP.
Last year was marked by a recession of 2.7%.