When Ryan Garcia and Luke Campbell fight on Saturday, January 2 in Dallas, Texas, the oddsmakers are providing great value for sports bettors to profit by betting on the WBC lightweight world title eliminator fight promoted by Golden Boy. Oscar De La Hoya Promotions and broadcast worldwide. in DAZN.
According to the boxing odds at BetOnline, Garcia is a -370 favorite (bet $370 to win $100) to beat the +300 underdog (bet $100 to win $300) Campbell. The money has moved dramatically in Garcia’s favor as the fight date approaches. Garcia opened as a -275 favorite while Campbell was a +235 underdog. The gap continues to widen, indicating that both sports bettors and sportsbooks feel that Garcia has become a prohibitive favorite. As I began writing this story, Garcia was a -400 favorite as the money had returned to Campbell. I expect the trend of the line to fluctuate until fight night to continue with a final surge in Garcia.
I always say that betting on sports is about the value of the line. Plain and simple. It’s not just about who you think is going to win or how, but about the statistical probability of a certain outcome and the risk-reward ratio associated with betting on that outcome. Also, knowing when to bet is just as important as the bet itself. In this case, there isn’t much line value betting Garcia to win at -400 right now, however, betting Garcia at -275 when the lines opened is what separates the holds from the squares. Knowing when the lines will move and why is equally important.
However, oddsmakers provided value for certain outcomes of this fight and that is where I am going to focus my best bets.
This fight is going to be about intangibles. Things that cannot be seen or touched. The winner of this fight will be the fighter who displays the highest boxing IQ and has the game plan that will mitigate his opponent’s ability to succeed. Both Garcia and Campbell possess a wealth of talent, have strong amateur pedigrees, Campbell the 2021 Olympic gold medal winner, Garcia the decorated career in USA boxing. Campbell’s southpaw position can be difficult for any orthodox fighter. On the other hand, Garcia has youth, speed, power and does not know how to lose. While Garcia has not yet been with the level of opponents that Campbell has had, such as Lomachenko in 2019 and Linares in 2017, they are both fighting for the world title. Campbell hasn’t been able to win “the big fight” every time he has stepped up.
1.) Ryan Garcia wins by KO, TKO or DQ -110 (bet $110 to win $100). Garcia has been preparing for this moment since he last fought in February 2020 with a spectacular knockout victory over Francisco Fonseca on Valentine’s Day. As I said earlier, it’s about the intangibles. Garcia spent his camp with his training partner, Canelo Alvarez, and is being trained by the same trainer, Eddy Reynoso. At 22 years old, Garcia continues to learn, continues to get stronger and continues to mature. Campbell hasn’t been able to win the big fight and that could be a mental block, once again an intangible. I see Garcia controlling the distance early and being patient as he looks to capitalize on Campbell’s mistakes. Garcia’s left hook is as dangerous as a punch. In this case, while he won’t be able to throw and land it like he normally does against smaller opponents because Campbell is only an inch shorter but has a one-inch reach advantage, Garcia’s speed will make up for that on top of prodding and hooking and timing the Campbell’s jab to dodge and hook. Campbell has also been knocked down three times, all in losses to him. I’m sure Eddy Reynoso has a good strategy for Garcia to follow and I feel like Garcia really wants to make a statement in this fight and do something that Linares and Lomachenko couldn’t do, which is stop Campbell. At -110, this is a great value.
2.) Ryan Garcia wins round 6 +1200 ($100 bet to win $1200) Doubling down to the fact that I feel like Garcia is going to win by knockout, picking the round where I feel like it’s going to happen has a lot of value that’s worth the $100 risk. In this case, I feel like the midpoint of this fight is where Garcia will have a strong command of his range and will have made the necessary adjustments to allow his power to finish the fight.
3.) Ryan Garcia wins round 7 +1200 ($100 bet to win $1200) Once again, at +1200, the value is too good to pass up. If Garcia doesn’t stop him in the sixth round, I’m going to risk another $100 for the seventh. These types of round betting odds also make for fun and excellent value.
4.) LESS THAN 9 1/2 Rounds +100 (bet $100 to win $100). I don’t see Campbell lasting until the middle of the 10th round and that’s why I think Garcia will stop Campbell within that timeframe. Whether it’s a knockout, a TKO or Campbell’s fight-stopping corner, at 33 years of age and having fought more than twice as many rounds in his 23 fights to Garcia’s 60 rounds in 20 fights, I only see the mileage catching up with Campbell in this fight. This is the one that doesn’t go the distance. In even money, I’ll bet it’ll be done in less than 9 1/2.
Whatever you choose to do with this information, gamble responsibly.